Researchers find up to 70 percent chance of a big quake in southern California in next 30 years
New research explores just how regular San Andreas fault ruptures may be
The San Andreas fault is one of the most dangerous seismically active faults in the world, due to its proximity to densely populated regions of California. But how often does this fault rupture and cause a large earthquake? About every 200 years, which is coming up soon, according to an article to be published in the May 13 issue of the journal, Science.
Glenn Biasi, research assistant professor with the University of Nevada, Renos Nevada Seismological Laboratory and colleagues from the University of Oregon and the U.S. Geological Survey developed new methods of linking distributed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes to calculate the probability that the San Andreas fault will rupture again within the next 30 years.
Three different rupture scenario models are consistent with present data. Depending on the model, the scientists have determined that there is a 20 percent to 70 percent chance that a large quake will shake southern California – “either a single long rupture or a series of overlapping ruptures in a short time interval” – within the next 30 years, according to the article, “Past and Future Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault.”
Media Contact
All latest news from the category: Earth Sciences
Earth Sciences (also referred to as Geosciences), which deals with basic issues surrounding our planet, plays a vital role in the area of energy and raw materials supply.
Earth Sciences comprises subjects such as geology, geography, geological informatics, paleontology, mineralogy, petrography, crystallography, geophysics, geodesy, glaciology, cartography, photogrammetry, meteorology and seismology, early-warning systems, earthquake research and polar research.
Newest articles
Time to Leave Home? Revealed Insights into Brood Care of Cichlids
Shell-dwelling cichlids take intense care of their offspring, which they raise in abandoned snail shells. A team at the Max Planck Institute for Biological Intelligence used 3D-printed snail shells to…
Smart Fabrics: Innovative Comfortable Wearable Tech
Researchers have demonstrated new wearable technologies that both generate electricity from human movement and improve the comfort of the technology for the people wearing them. The work stems from an…
Going Steady—Study Reveals North Atlantic’s Gulf Stream Remains Robust
A study by the University of Bern and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the USA concludes that the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf Stream,…